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10/6/10

How does the Randy Moss trade change the Patriots and Vikings?

Randy Moss has become the NFL's newest prodigal son. Now can either the Minnesota Vikings (with Moss) or the New England Patriots (without him) bring home the Lombardi Trophy?
DETAILS: Patriots deal Moss to Vikings for third-round pick
By Stephan Savoia, AP
QB Tom Brady and Co. will at least have extra time to adapt to life after Randy as they head into their bye week. But challenges certainly loom:
  • Who will take Moss' place in the lineup? Presumably Brandon Tate, who has displayed his stretch-the-field ability by returning two kickoffs for TDs this year, including a 103-yarder Monday night.
  • Will Wes Welker be as effective? He and Moss have been ideal complements in the New England passing attack for the past three-plus years, though Moss often drew the opposing defense's top cornerback. Will opponents adhere to that strategy, or will Welker, who has averaged 7.4 receptions per game during his Patriots career, be looking across at Darrelle Revis and Vontae Davis more frequently in the future?
  • Who else will Brady be looking to? Julian Edelman, who looked like a carbon copy of Welker at times in 2009, will likely get more opportunities in multiple-receiver sets. Moss' loss also likely means the role of promising rookie TE Aaron Hernandez (18 catches, 240 yards), who has looked like a Dallas Clark clone, expands.
  • Import options? There aren't a lot of wideouts lying around at this point of the season. Aging veterans (Laveranues Coles, Bobby Wade) and players with unfulfilled potential (Reggie Brown, Dwayne Jarrett, Demetrius Williams) represent what the Pats will largely be able to sift through unless they try to turn around and make a second deal with a receiver-laden team like the Saints or Packers -- though that seems unlikely given those clubs' reliance on the passing game. Which means ...
  • ... the most intriguing option by far is unhappy Chargers WR Vincent Jackson. Jackson is only 27 and has the talent to fill Moss' shoes long-term. Stocked with the draft picks (they now own two picks in the first, second, third and fourth rounds next year) they've amassed from other teams, the Patriots certainly seem to have the ammunition to liberate Jackson from San Diego GM A.J. Smith if they so choose. However, the clock is ticking with the trade deadline expiring Oct. 19. And since Smith relegated Jackson to the Chargers' roster-exempt list, V.J. currently would have to sit out three more games -- as Bolts LT Marcus McNeill is currently doing -- before he's eligible to play in 2010.
In Minnesota, things seem to be looking up. The Vikings are unlikely to remain ranked 24th in passing offense much longer, though Moss (who could play 17 games this year) will get a stern first test Monday night in New Jersey, where he's likely to lock horns with the Jets' Revis (who seems to be largely recovered from a tight hamstring) for the second time in a month. Other possible ramifications in the Twin Cities:
  • The Vikings haven't granted Moss a new contract yet, so the 33-year-old may still find himself playing for what could be the last lucrative deal of his career. But he and QB Brett Favre, whose future in Minnesota is just as hazy as Moss', have plenty of motivation over the next 13 games -- and possibly (at least they hope) more -- to lead the Vikings to their first championship immediately.
  • Moss ostensibly slides into the role of injured WR Sidney Rice (hip surgery), who served as a poor man's Moss -- perhaps more accurately an upper-middle class man's Moss -- for Favre with 83 catches for 1,312 yards and eight TDs in 2009. But Moss is even more experienced and adept at snaring jump balls while opening things up underneath for his teammates. But expect Favre to embrace his bombs-away mentality and likely give Moss every opportunity to make big plays downfield and in the end zone.
  • TE Visanthe Shiancoe (who has a tender hamstring), and WRs Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian can revert to the jobs they did so well last season now that they don't have to worry about compensating for Rice's absence. Harvin in particular can focus more on manning the slot and turning quick slants from Favre into long gainers now that the Charles Woodsons and Revises of the world will be forced to contend with Moss.
  • RB Adrian Peterson had become the offensive focus with 51 carries for 305 yards in the past two games. Look for his load to diminish somewhat going forward, but don't be surprised to see the Vikings continue to feature him more than they did in 2009, when they only ran 44% of the time. Peterson is still the team's best player -- his 13 catches are currently tops on the club, t00 -- and a better-balanced offense could be the key to taking the Vikes where they want to go.
  • Whither Rice? Minnesota now has almost no incentive to rush him off the PUP list after six weeks. And if his hip isn't responding well, the team could more comfortably hold him out all season. Bottom line, he'll get the time he needs to get healthy and could still be the long-term answer as Minnesota's No. 1 receiver with Moss currently looking like a rental.

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